
![]() Poor Stats Usually Take a Toll
paul greco · April 28th, 2008
If you are going to the bridge due to your fantasy team’s poor start, remember you do not have to pay the toll, just say “fantasy jump”. This is true for both RotoHog and your traditional teams. Surely if you drafted a players who's been hurt: Shane Victorino, Ty Wigginton, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Chad Cordero, Joe Borowski and the Soriano boys, or if you Ire San Francisco for a while, your team may be hurting. Perhaps the star players you drafted namely: Robinson Cano, Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitski, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, David Ortiz, Hunter Pence and Ryan Zimmerman have lead you to the bridge, as they have not been shining to this point. Did you buy into spring training numbers? Here I take a look at five players who exceeded in spring training, but have started the season slowly and could be great options with the Buy-Low strategy: Hunter Pence : Pence was one of the great rookies in the National League in 2007 and all indications Ire that he'd continue his hitting ways in 2008. Not so fast. Pence is striking out at an alarming rate (21 K's/4 BB's) and only has nine extra base hits. Robinson Cano : There has been no bad luck for Cano. His BA/BIP is .165 and to this point has been one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy baseball. I don't feel that he’ll stay this bad, and it could be time to reach out to the owner who has him in your league to see if you can steal him.
Placido Polanco : Going into the 2008 fantasy baseball draft Polanco was a guy many targeted to help their team batting average. With a .185 average to this point in the season, many fantasy owners have dropped Polanco. Using his career starts as a measuring stick, Polanco should rebound, and if you need batting average help could be a great option in the future. Chris Snyder : Snyder was a player going into the 2008 season that had many things going for him. He was 27, going to be the starter in Arizona with Miguel Montero injured and had a great spring training. The bad news, all his power stayed behind. Snyder has been a big disappointment and like Cano could be had for cheap. J.J. Hardy : Hardy had a break out season in 2007, but as predicted by many “experts” is off to a disastrous start in 2008. With only four extra base hits, Hardy is a player that is flying under the radar. In 2007 Hardy enjoyed a .325/ 9 HR/ 29 RBI May. May is right around the corner and some fantasy owners are hoping so are his 2007 May numbers. If any one or combination of the above has mortally wounded your fantasy life, don’t jump…YET! I do have ways to heal you. IDENTIFY STRENGTHS AND IAKNESSESS-Sit down and spend some time making reasonable team projections for each fantasy category. Although our current Tout Wars stolen base ranking appears average, using fair projections (never project higher than what a player has already achieved) I have determined SB’s as strength. I can trade a big SB player and still fair very Ill in this category. Using projections allows you to feel comfortable trading off a category even if you are currently in the middle or bottom of the pack. BUY LOW-I have heard the saying “buy low” for years. Historically, players who have established themselves at certain player performance levels “generally” perform within a reasonable range of those levels. When the established player performs below the acceptable range of their history, I raise a flag looking for: injury, change of position, change in environment, contract or off the field problems. Sell High- I have two different methods to sell high. 1. MARKET OVERACHIEVING PLAYER: Pat Burrell, Ryan Doumit, Xavier Nady, Skip Schumaker, Cliff Lee, Mark Hendrickson. Should these players continue their current pace, they will achieve all time personal highs by far, and also be considered MLB All-Stars. This is unlikely to happen. Don’t expect to get an All-Star in return, but filling holes and/or dead spots is the goal here. Current hot status players may help you acquire either a more established player or acquire two lesser players with one player filling a dead spot. Trade one hot player at 25 HR's, 90RBI and 85 runs for two lesser players at 15 HR's, 70 RBI and 65 runs which would you rather have? Play for this year by marketing year “studs”- Pence, Tulowitski, Russell Martin, Evan Longoria, Geovany Soto, Johnny Cueto, Delmon Young, Justin Upton, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Joba Chamberlain. “A rookie is a rookie is a rookie” has been my mantra for years. In the long haul, (ok, not last year) you can go down the tubes counting on rookies. 2nd year players often take the position that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it as year two begins. At the same time opposing teams are making adjustment. Many 2nd year players need time to adjust. Market and see if you can fetch a bundle. 2. GIVE UP CATEGORY-Trade Closers. I take the position that closers can be the most overrated players in fantasy baseball. If you drafted closers high or spent $25-$40, you could have done better. To get back in the pack, market all closers separately. This allows you to upgrade multiple categories while sacrificing only one. As you market closers, identify other relief pitchers to support your ERA, and whip. Examples such as Santiago Casilla, Renyel Pinto, Jorge Campillo, Scott Downs, Justin Speier, Aqilino Lopez may all still be free agents. I recently obtained Pinto and Campillo. Give up saves and improve multiple categories. 3. GIVE UP BATTING AVERAGE-If you have one foot at the ledge, try the unusual. Call every owner who has the annual batting average killer and make them an offer. Adam Dunn, Rickie Weeks, Chris Young, Andrew Jones and Richie Sexson are some who kill your BA yet can be a tremendous help elsewhere. Be sure to remind the other owners that BA can be improved dramatically by addition and subtraction. You may find the owner desperate to improve BA. Make a fair offer; keeping in mind the owner your trading with improves by ridding his team of “BA Killer.” Give up BA to help multiple categories. |
Profile: Since high school, Paul has had a blast playing Fantasy Sports. The guy lives and breathes it. From the strategy on draft day, to making trades or working the waiver wire, he loves the fantasy game. What Paul hates are the fantasy experts who tell you what to do with your team, but don’t do the same thing on their fantasy teams. Paul wants to show you how he consistently wins his leagues and what he does to win them. Paul does not want to just write articles to tell you what you should do, he wants you to feel as though you are on his team. Paul is co-owner of Gotham Sports Media , Gotham Baseball Magazine and Gotham Sports Radio and is a Principle Engineer with General Dynamics in San Antonio, TX. Paul is also the voice of RotoHog.com and has appeared on ESPN Radio, WIP in Philadelphia, and KALL 700 Sports in Salt Lake City. Listen to him every on the weekly Internet show, Talking Baseball, every Wednesday night at 8pm ET. Paul, is also a highly decorated veteran of the United States Air Force for 10 years served in Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Northern Watch, and Operation Southern Watch. Born: Amityville, NY -- Yes, that's right the same place as the horror show. Explains a lot huh? Favorite Sport Baseball Sports Played: Baseball, Soccer, Football, Basketball Favorite covering sports moment: Getting to sit down and talk to Hall-of-Famer Duke Snider for two hours. We discussed the Brooklyn Dodgers day and their great teams, Jackie Robinson, and him being amongst the best OF'ers of his time. What a great man! If I was an athlete I would be like: Michael Jordan. This was a guy that took basketball to a whole new level. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were great for the NBA, but Jordan rose above the game and his influence can be seen in many of today's great players. CategoriesADVERTISEMENT
Recent Smack Back
Archives
Bloggers' Latest |