3rd inning, the Cubs season flashes before my eyes as Juan Pierre plows into Derek Lee at first. This happened a couple of years ago…when the Cubs were also playing well, and Lee was out for a while…and there went the season. It might have even happened at Dodger Stadium. Thankfully Pierre is 120 pounds soaking wet.
Either follows with a hit to continue the rally…but thankfully porn-stache owner Jeff Kent raps into a double play as the crowd erupts (yes, this is Dodger stadium, but half the people here have to be Cub fans).
Lowe is spinning a no-hitter through 4 (jinx intended). I don’t have the numbers to back this up in front of me…but Lowe has always seemed to give the Cubs a hard time.
Dodgers rallying in the 4th, 2 on 2 out and who’s (Dodgers Short-Stop Chin-Lung Hu…but close enough) at home. This gets me thinking, there have to be a million ways you can use or misuse Hu’s name. He rolls weakly to Derek Lee. The game is really moving quickly as we are on to the 5th.
Bye-Bye, No-No, Soto-Soto loops one to right and the Cubs have something going.
Fontenot bunts the runners to 2nd and 3rd. One out for Reed Johnson. Speaking of using the bunt, I am still puzzled why Torre did not bunt Loney to 3rd in the bottom of the 9th on Friday. Nobody out, runner at 2nd, trailing by one, at home…that is a must bunt situation, unless your best hitter is coming up. Don’t know why I am complaining, I think that is what enabled the Cubs to win that game…guess I am a baseball purist, even more then a Cubs fan. As I pontificate, Reed Johnson raps to Short and Fukadome scores from 3rd. Cubs lead 1-0.
Bunt Math
JibJab 17 weeks 5 days 9 hours 18 min ago
With a man on 2nd and nobody out, a team historically will score at least 1 run 63.2% of the time. They will score 2+ runs (enough to win outright) 28.4% of the time. So, assume the home team is 55% in extra innings, they are..
(.55 * .632) + .284 = 63.2% to win in this situation
With a man on 3rd and one out, a team historically will score at least 1 run more often, 66.2% of the time. BUT they will score 2+ runs (enough to win outright) just 18.4% of the time. Same assumption on extra innings and they are..
(.55 * .662) + .184 = 54.8% to win
Blake DeWitt was at the plate. He has 2 sacrifice hits in 1,859 combined major/minor league at-bats, but even IF we assume he will successfully move the runner 100% of the time, he has still reduced the Dodgers chances of winning almost 10% by doing so.
Obviously these are averages and you have to look at the specific players at the plate, but I would be much much more prone to throw out my best pinch hitters here than to attempt what is probably a counterproductive bunt.
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html